Sunday, December 7, 2008

Yuan Watch : Chinese mouse trap

It was reported that Obama spoke with Hu Jintao, the Chinese President, and emphasized his willingness to 'further strengthen constructive relations between China and the US.'

Given that I share both a political (uberliberal with a moderate mask) and a geographical persuasion with Obama Smartypants let me try to handicap what these 'constructive relations' might be.

Obama hinting to the Chinese that a small devaluation of the yuan would be acceptable in these troubled times is the uberliberal version of a Chinese mousetrap.

Enacting trade protections in order to keep those stimulus dollars on the homefront is much easier within the context of China stealing manufacturing jobs with a manipulated currency.

The Chinese would be wise to see yuan appreciation as an insurance premium to allow export access.

My bets though are now on the cheese being too tempting.

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